Name: Justin Baker
Title: Principal Broker | Partner
Company: TRIO Commercial Property Group
Years in the industry: 23 years
Years in your current role: 15 years
Q: What’s the biggest trend you’re seeing locally right now for commercial real estate?
Louisville is evolving into a true growth market rather than just a crossover state between the Southeast and Midwest regions. National retailers increasingly view Louisville as distribution friendly, more cost effective than markets like Nashville, Austin and Charlotte, and increasingly affluent in suburban nodes. That is driving strong interest from new-to-market retailers like Publix, Wawa, Bank of America and Dutch Bros.
We are seeing Florida brands move north, Mid Atlantic brands move south and western growth brands enter Kentucky for the first time. Louisville is benefiting from that momentum as a catalyst for new development across retail, industrial and multifamily sectors.
Q: What are a couple of hot areas of the metro for the CRE sector(s) you primarily deal in?
With the limited inventory of land available in with in Gene Snyder Freeway (I-265), the majority of new development is occurring just outside of I-265. The expansion of Publix and Kroger throughout the MSA has been a catalyst to additional retail and housing development. There has also been positive leasing momentum for Class A office space in the East End. Some hot areas within the metro that we are dealing in include:
- Old Henry Rd (East of I-265) – Louisville’s first Publix and new Wawa
- NE Louisville - Brownsboro Rd - Paddock Shops and New Publix, Kroger, Chick-fil-a and 7Brew
- Westport Rd - Springhurst Towne Center
- Fern Creek – (South of I-265) - Southpointe Commons Phase II & Fern Creek Commons
- Preston Hwy (South of I-265) -Proposed Target and Publix
Q: How do you feel about the current state of downtown in terms of office, retail and multifamily?
Downtown is in a transitional phase. Office continues to face headwinds from hybrid work, impacting occupancy and leasing activity. At the same time, we are seeing older office product repurposed as hotel and multifamily uses, including projects like the JW Marriott Louisville. Retail remains dependent on foot traffic and residential density, while multifamily continues to be a bright spot helping stabilize the urban core.
Areas like NuLu continue to see strong momentum with new restaurants, bourbon experiences and hotel development driving activity and tourism. Long term, downtown Louisville will benefit from a more balanced mix of uses, but near term it will require continued investment and thoughtful repositioning of older assets.
Q: What are some headwinds that are holding back CRE activity?
Interest rates and capital markets remain the biggest headwinds. While conditions have stabilized somewhat, the cost of debt is still impacting valuations and deal feasibility. Construction costs also continue to challenge new development. In many cases, there is still a gap between buyer and seller expectations, which is slowing transaction volume.
On the tenant side, decision timelines are taking longer than they did in previous cycles. Despite those challenges, well located and fundamentally sound deals are still getting done.
Q: What’s something that excites you about development in the metro area right now?
One thing that is really exciting right now is the momentum across multiple commercial real estate sectors. Publix entering Louisville has been a major catalyst for new retail development and has increased competition among grocery retailers, pushing companies like Kroger, ALDI and The Fresh Market to expand, renovate stores and reinvest in the market.
At the same time, industrial continues to accelerate as Louisville strengthens its position as a logistics hub with major recent investments from UPS, GE Aerospace and Ford Motor Company, including Ford’s nearly $2 billion investment at Louisville Assembly Plant. We are also seeing continued infrastructure investment through the SDF Next expansion at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport, which further reinforces Louisville’s long term position as a national logistics and distribution hub.
By Shea Van Hoy – Editor-in-chief, Louisville Business First
May 21, 2026
